{
  "generatedAt": "2026-10-23T02:25:42.001Z",
  "candidate": "career-v5",
  "baseline": "career-v4",
  "protocol": "Freeze all inputs before each held-out season. Compare the higher uncapped score with observed matchup results on the same supported pairs. Tied scores/outcomes receive half credit. No fitting, regression, or scale tuning. Scores are not probabilities.",
  "windows": [
    {
      "holdoutSeason": 2024,
      "totalHoldoutGames": 154,
      "pairedGames": 2,
      "managers": 2,
      "leagues": 1,
      "bothRankEligibleGames": 0,
      "v5Accuracy": 0,
      "v4Accuracy": 0,
      "winPercentageAccuracy": 0
    },
    {
      "holdoutSeason": 2025,
      "totalHoldoutGames": 378,
      "pairedGames": 71,
      "managers": 10,
      "leagues": 2,
      "bothRankEligibleGames": 0,
      "v5Accuracy": 0.4507042253521127,
      "v4Accuracy": 0.4647887323943662,
      "winPercentageAccuracy": 0.49295774647887325
    },
    {
      "holdoutSeason": 2026,
      "totalHoldoutGames": 156,
      "pairedGames": 56,
      "managers": 20,
      "leagues": 3,
      "bothRankEligibleGames": 56,
      "v5Accuracy": 0.41964285714285715,
      "v4Accuracy": 0.375,
      "winPercentageAccuracy": 0.36607142857142855
    }
  ],
  "summary": {
    "pairedGames": 129,
    "v5Accuracy": 0.43023255813953487,
    "v4Accuracy": 0.4186046511627907,
    "winPercentageAccuracy": 0.43023255813953487
  },
  "limitations": [
    "Imported history is incomplete and not a random sample of Sleeper users.",
    "Repeated managers and leagues make games dependent; percentages are descriptive, not statistical significance tests.",
    "Coverage checks are relative to known imported records, not verified lifetime history.",
    "The fixed score conversion is preserved for compatibility; predictive calibration is not established."
  ],
  "decision": "Experimental release for evidence handling and interpretability; this report does not establish predictive superiority."
}